osmose.calibration.uq.gate

Probabilistic emulator-calibration gate (Bastos & O’Hagan 2009 style).

Cross-validates a GPEmulator and standardizes held-out residuals by the latent predictive variance plus the held-out seed-mean noise alpha (= s²/S). A calibrated emulator has ~95% interval coverage, mean standardized-squared-residual (MSSR) near 1, and PIT-uniform residuals. MSSR is the primary discriminator; coverage and PIT are secondary. Certifies emulator fidelity only — NOT the ≤~20-effective-param sampler envelope, which Phase 2 enforces separately.

Functions

evaluate_emulator_calibration(X, Y, alpha, *)

Cross-validate the emulator and decide whether it is calibrated.

Classes

GateReport(n, coverage, mssr, pit_pvalue, ...)

Calibration verdict + metrics for one emulator output.