osmose.calibration.uq.likelihood

Per-target log-likelihoods over the natural-log biomass residual.

Both likelihoods apply the Jensen correction mu = mu_emu + 0.5*sigma_seed_sq (the emulator target is the mean-of-logs = log-geometric-mean, biased low of the log-arithmetic-mean the ICES targets live on). GaussianLogBiomass is the default; BandFaithful (added alongside) is an ABC-style tolerance kernel that is prior-dominated (flat) on the in-band plateau.

Functions

band_faithful(mu_emu, emulator_var, target, ...)	ABC tolerance kernel: log P(ln y in [ln lower, ln upper]) under the emulator's Jensen-corrected predictive Gaussian.
gaussian_log_biomass(mu_emu, emulator_var, ...)	Split-normal log-likelihood of one target given the emulator prediction.